Overview
synthesis + tape · Friday 31 Jul 2026 · GST● PIPELINE LIVE
MARKET STATE
NEUTRAL · RANGE-LOCKED
bias fade the extremes of 3,995–4,090
conviction medium · GVZ 22.8
conviction medium · GVZ 22.8
◆ SENTINEL BRAIN · SYNTHESISupdated 10:22:41 · event #4611 (PCE / month-end)
XAUUSD · 8 months · scored events overlay
hover event dots for the story● 60sAnalysis Terminal
full driver stack · positioning · flows · quantitative toolkit● PIPELINE LIVE
ST Sentiment · hours–weeks
click for attributionLT Sentiment · months–years
click for attributionRegime & Divergence
ST − LT spread · 60dREGIME: range-locked between the disinflation floor (PCE first monthly drop in 6y) and the hawkish ceiling (9–3 hold, Sept ~79%). Hormuz is a two-way headline machine. Month-end today — expect fix-window volume distortions.
LBMA Gold Price · AM/PM Fix
London auctionTODAY · AM (13:30 GST)4,048.30
TODAY · PM (18:00 GST)auction in —
THU · AM / PM4,041.20 / 4,046.80
SPOT vs LAST FIX+3.85 (+0.09%)
Fair Value Model
drivers regression · daily
MODEL 4,286
MARKET 4,122
DISCOUNT −3.8%
inputs: 10Y real · DXY · CB pace · GLD flows · R²=0.87 (24m)
Market trades cheap to macro model — consistent with washed-out positioning (p34). Discount >5% historically mean-reverted within 6w in 71% of cases.
Spot Matrix · 1 ozt / 1 g (999)
multi-currencyUSD4,122.40 / 132.54
AED15,139 / 486.7
EUR3,813 / 122.6
INR354,527 / 11,399
TRY169,018 / 5,434
Scored News Feed
● SSEKey Drivers
1y percentile · click → overlayCOMEX Options · Aug OpEx
top open interest14d 02hTO EXPIRY · GC AUG26 · 28 JUL
P/C 1.18 · put skew · OI wall 4000P below spot — magnet risk into OpEx
Official Sector Pulse
CB net 12m 942 t ▲ pace +8%
PBoC Jun +14.9 t · 20th straight mo · 2,346 t
WGC survey: 45% of CBs plan to add (record)
PBoC Jun +14.9 t · 20th straight mo · 2,346 t
WGC survey: 45% of CBs plan to add (record)
Influencer Pulse
credibility-weighted
62% bull
Alden LT BULL · Nieuwenhuijs BULL · Hansen NEUT
Seasonality · monthly avg return · 25y
+ hit rateCorrelation Matrix · 90d daily returns
XAU vs majorsMonte Carlo Projection · 3 months · 2,000 paths
vol-scaled to GVZP(touch 4,400 within 60d) 38% · P(retest 4,000) 31% · median path 4,205 — cone widened 12% post-jobs-miss vol repricing
Technical Snapshot
daily timeframe| RSI (14) | 47.8 | neutral |
| vs MA50 | +0.9% | reclaimed |
| vs MA200 | −3.6% | below ⚠ |
| ATR (14) | $58.2 | p64 |
| 52w position | 41% | of range |
| GDX / XAU 30d | +4.1% | miners lead ▲ |
| Futures curve | contango 0.9% | normal carry |
Miners outperforming metal for 3 weeks — historically a positive breadth signal at cycle turns.
Session Attribution · 60d cumulative
where the move happensDrawdown Analysis · 5y
| Peak → Trough | Depth | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26 → Jun 26 | −26.0% | 98d | ongoing · −24% now |
| Oct 24 → Nov 24 | −9.8% | 21d | 34d |
| May 23 → Oct 23 | −13.4% | 104d | 61d |
| Mar 22 → Sep 22 | −21.9% | 132d | 187d |
| Aug 20 → Mar 21 | −19.1% | 148d | 160d |
Current drawdown is the deepest since 2013 — but the only one occurring while central banks accelerate buying.
News Intelligence
deduplicated · taxonomy-scored · decay-aware rankingFeed · last 48h
● LIVEDeep Dossier
tier-2 analysis
Select a news item with a DOSSIER badge to view its structured analysis.
Category heat · 48h net score
Drivers Studio
any driver vs XAU · percentile contextSeries
10Y Real Yield (inverted) vs XAUUSD · 8m
Options & Flows
COMEX GC · CFTC positioning · ETF flowsOpen Interest by Strike · GC AUG26
source: CME daily bulletin (sim)Managed Money Net Position · COT
weekly · 2yGLD Holdings · daily Δ tonnes · 90d
COMEX Registered Stocks · Moz · 12m
⚠ 1 stale dayRegional Physical Premium Tracker
premium/discount vs London spot · $/ozSHANGHAI · SGE
+$28.4
p92 · widening ▲ · onshore bid firm
DUBAI · DGD
+$4.2
p61 · steady · TT bar demand normal
INDIA · MUMBAI
−$11.8
p18 · discount — duty-change chatter freezing buyers
ISTANBUL
+$9.1
p74 · retail hedge demand vs TRY
READ: East–West spread (SGE minus GLD-implied) at p88 — physical pulling metal eastward; historically a 4–8 week leading support for spot. India discount is duty-anticipation, not demand loss.
Official Sector
central-bank gold demand · reserves · de-dollarizationCB net purchases · 12m
942 t
▲ pace +8% q/q
PBoC streak
20 months
+14.9t Jun · biggest since '23
PBoC holdings
2,346 t
<10% of reserves
WGC survey: CBs planning to add
45%
record high · 89% see global ↑
Monthly CB Net Purchases · 24m · tonnes
Notable buyers · latest prints
| Bank | Latest | 12m | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 PBoC | +14.9t | +119t | ACCUMULATE |
| 🇵🇱 NBP | +8.2t | +61t | ACCUMULATE |
| 🇹🇷 CBRT | +5.1t | +48t | STEADY |
| 🇮🇳 RBI | +3.4t | +37t | STEADY |
| 🇰🇿 NBK | −2.1t | +9t | MIXED |
| 🇸🇬 MAS | 0.0t | +22t | PAUSED |
Influencer Intelligence
directional calls logged · scored vs realized price · credibility-weightedTracked voices · by credibility
Weighted stance · 90d
Recent calls
| Voice | Call | Horizon | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| L. Alden | BULL @4,088 | 6m | OPEN |
| J. Nieuwenhuijs | BULL @3,995 | 12m | OPEN |
| O. Hansen | BEAR @4,310 | 1m | ✓ HIT +4.4% |
| P. Schiff | BULL @5,380 | 3m | ✗ MISS −25% |
| T. Costa | BULL @4,050 | 6m | OPEN |
Economic Calendar
consensus captured · surprise drives scoring · GST timesEvent Playbook · historical XAU behavior around events
computed from surprise archive (sim)| Event type | Sample | Median 1h move | Median 24h move | On negative surprise | On positive surprise | Fade rate* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US CPI | 24 prints | ±0.62% | ±0.94% | +0.81% (24h) | −1.12% (24h) | 29% |
| NFP / Jobs | 24 prints | ±0.55% | ±0.78% | +0.74% | −0.88% | 33% |
| FOMC decision | 16 meetings | ±0.71% | ±1.21% | +1.35% (dovish) | −1.42% (hawkish) | 41% |
| FOMC minutes | 16 releases | ±0.28% | ±0.41% | +0.39% | −0.44% | 52% |
| Fed chair testimony | 9 sessions | ±0.34% | ±0.52% | direction follows rate-path repricing, not tone | 47% | |
| Geopolitical escalation (sev ≥7) | 31 events | +0.48% | +0.36% | initial spike decays ~62% within 72h absent follow-through | 62% | |
| CB purchase print (>10t) | 22 prints | +0.11% | +0.28% | weak ST, strong LT — flows not headlines carry it | 18% | |
* fade rate: share of initial 1h moves reversed >50% within 24h · demo values illustrative — production version computes from the surprise archive (§07)
Admin & Health
ingestion · data quality · LLM cost accounting · auditLLM spend today
$3.84 / $12 cap
32% · on pace
Cache hit · tier 1
76%
▲ target ≥70%
Items today
412
T0 61% · T1 34% · T2 11 items
Data quality flags
1 open
COMEX stocks · stale 1d
LLM cost · 14d · by tier
Ingestion jobs
last run statusfred_series13:40 · 12 series · ok
treasury_fiscal13:35 · ok
rss_fed_treasury13:42 · 3 new · ok
rss_market_set13:42 · 11 new · 7 deduped
gdelt_geo13:30 · 4 events · ok
gld_holdings07:05 · +2.1t · ok
cme_warehousestale 26h · quarantined · alert sent
cot_weeklyFri 23:30 · ok
econ_calendar13:15 · consensus ok
influencer_poll12:00 · 2 new calls
Calculators
melt value · purity conversion · scrap lots · dealer hedge — live spot linkedMelt Value & Purity
SPOT 4,122.40MELT VALUE · PURE CONTENT——
Purity Reference
fineness ↔ karat| Karat | Fineness | % Au | $/g now |
|---|
tola = 11.6638 g · mesghal = 4.6083 g · troy oz = 31.1035 g
Scrap Lot Builder
multi-item · mixed karat| # | Weight (g) | Karat | Pure g | Melt $ |
|---|
Lot pure content
—
Lot melt value
—
@ payout 82%
—
Dealer Hedge Assistant
physical → XAUUSD lotsSHORT HEDGE REQUIRED · 1 LOT = 100 ozt——
Production version: pulls net inventory from ledger, suggests hedge tranche sizing by ST regime (defer % when Brain = BULLISH), routes via Finalto FIX.
Ratio Studio
gold priced in other assets · percentile vs 10y historyGold / Silver Ratio · 2y
Relative Value Read
Cheap vs gold: silver (ratio p38 → silver relatively strong post-squeeze); equities near median.
Rich vs gold: oil — Gold/Oil at p91: gold buys near-record barrels; historically resolved by oil catching up or gold consolidating.
Regime flag: Gold/M2 at p54 — despite the nominal ATH in January, gold is not stretched vs money supply; the LT debasement thesis stays intact.
Each ratio feeds the Brain as a rotation signal when it crosses p85/p15.
Portfolio
physical + paper · live P&L · fully editable — change qty or cost and everything recomputes● LIVE RECALC
Total value
—
—
Total P&L
—
vs blended cost
Pure gold content
—
physical + ETF exposure
Drawdown context
−24% from ATH
hist. median 1y fwd after ≥20% DD: +14.2%
Holdings · editable
qty + cost inputs live| Asset | Qty | Cost basis | Value | P&L |
|---|
Alert armed: notify if ST index < −3 while holding margin longs · notify at spot 4,250 / 4,000. Production adds: add/remove rows, cash leg, CSV import, ledger sync.
Allocation · live
DCA Lab
classic DCA vs sentiment-aware DCA · 24-month simulationInvested (24 × $1,000)
$24,000
monthly, both strategies
Classic DCA value
$29,850
+24.4% · avg cost 3,486/oz
Smart DCA value
$32,610
+35.9% · avg cost 3,214/oz
Smart rule
skip when ST > +5,
double when ST < −3
double when ST < −3
same total capital deployed
Equity curves + buy markers
● classic · ◆ smart double-buysHONESTY NOTE: demo uses illustrative data. Production version backtests the rule on the real sentiment archive vs Dukascopy prices (Stage 8) and reports IC + drawdown honestly — if the edge isn't there, the lab will say so.
Step Log · why each tranche was sized this way
rule-generated reasons| Month | ST index | Action | Reason |
|---|
Entry Verdict · is now a good buy point?
● BRAIN-LINKEDCapital Deployment Planner
enter fresh capital → rule-based planNEXT 6 STEPS · SUGGESTED
The plan is state-contingent, not fixed: each month the tranche multiplier re-reads the live ST/LT indices. Skipped tranches and the washout reserve redeploy on ST<−3 events — historically ~2 per year — which is where Smart DCA's entire edge came from in the simulation above.
Aurum Wiki
every metric on this terminal, explained · auto-grows as new terms appear in the feedLBMA Gold Price · AM / PM Fix
ICE Benchmark auction · 10:30 & 15:00 London (13:30 / 18:00 GST) · settlement benchmarkToday · AM Fix
4,048.30
▲ +1.50 vs Thu PM · set 13:30 GST
Today · PM Fix
—
auction 18:00 GST
Spot vs last fix
—
live drift since AM auction
PM − AM avg · 20d
−$4.8
London/NY session pressure — selling into PM
Fix History · AM vs PM · 6 months
daily auction printsToday's Auction Conditions
● LIVE READAM auction (done): settled 4,048.30 in 3 rounds — month-end AM printed mid-shelf, right inside the 4,041–4,072 cap zone.
Into the PM: month-end benchmark print — index and ETF rebalance flows concentrate in this window, so expect heavier matched volume and a possible off-spot print. Today's imbalance sign says more about flows than direction.
Pattern watch: 20-day PM−AM average at −$4.8 — persistent Western-session selling. A flip positive has historically accompanied trend turns (last: Nov-24).
Benchmark note: today's PM fix settles ETF NAVs, refinery contracts and our physical book marks.
PM − AM Spread · 40 sessions
intraday session directionRecent Sessions
| Date | AM Fix | PM Fix | PM−AM | vs prior PM |
|---|
Fix Nowcaster · next auction estimate
● LIVE MODELNowcast · PM 18:00 GST
—
—
Direction odds
—
vs last fix
T-minus
—
band tightens as T→0
MODEL: spot anchor + London-session drift bias (Abrantes-Metz: PM-call moves skew down ~2:1) + SGE lead + live tape momentum (computed from your 1s feed) + prior-auction imbalance carry. Band = f(GVZ, time-to-auction). Production version regresses on the full IBA round archive.
Cross-Market Lead Board
what prints BEFORE LondonSGE PM BENCHMARK (14:15 CST · 3h45m ahead)+$24.6 prem ▲
COMEX GC MOMENTUM · live 30m—
EFP NY−LONDON · $/oz+2.1 · normal
1M IMPLIED LEASE RATE1.35% · tight
PRIOR AUCTION IMBALANCE CARRY+5.6k oz buy-side
COMPOSITE FIX LEAD SCORE—
Shanghai benchmark prints hours before London — the cheapest structural lead in gold. EFP & lease spikes flag physical stress (Jan-25 dislocation: EFP hit $60+).
Auction Microstructure · today AM · IBA Transparency format
round-by-round| Round | Price | Bid oz | Offer oz | Imbalance | Part. |
|---|
Fix Event-Study · avg spot path ±60min
500 auctionsTHE DOCUMENTED EDGE: volume & volatility jump at auction start, not at publication (Caminschi & Heaney) — opening-round flow predicts fix direction with up to 90%+ accuracy. Post-publication path is flat: the information is spent by T+4min.
Nowcaster Scoreboard · last 8 auctions
honest error tracking| Auction | Nowcast T−30m | Actual | Error | Direction |
|---|
MAE · 30m horizon
$3.42
≈8bp of spot
Direction hit-rate
6 / 8
75% — small sample, tracked live in prod
Best lead
tape momentum
then SGE premium delta
Gadget Studio
multi-template branded boards · TV / square / portrait / strip · per-user presetsConfiguration
saved per userProduction: unlimited named presets per user, each with standalone URL /g/<token> + iframe embed — auto-refresh, no login on the display device.
Dubai Desk
DGJG-methodology retail rates · souk economics · FTA-compliant quoting — all live from spot● LIVE FROM SPOT
Retail Rate Board · AED per gram
LBMA spot → 3.6725 peg → karat · updates 1s| Karat | Purity | AED / gram | AED / tola | vs yesterday |
|---|
WHY THIS MATTERS: souk shop boards update once or twice a day while spot trades 23h — in yesterday's ±4% session a static board mispriced for hours. This board never goes stale.
Shop Buy / Sell · live
souk conventionBUY NEW (incl. ~7.5% making avg)—
SELL USED (~2% under spot)—
DEALER 1KG BAR (≈0.5% prem)—
Market Rules
official DGJG rate display in shops: mandatory
jewellery VAT 5% · investment bullion VAT-exempt
import duty on bars 0% · DMCC hallmark mandated
making negotiable · bulk 50g+ → 20–40% off making
jewellery VAT 5% · investment bullion VAT-exempt
import duty on bars 0% · DMCC hallmark mandated
making negotiable · bulk 50g+ → 20–40% off making
Quote Builder · FTA-itemized
weight × rate + making + VATMaking reference: machine chains 3–8% · standard 8–15% · handmade 15–25% · jadau 20–35% (of gold value)
Receipt Preview
● RECALC 1sSaaS & API
productized data layer · playground runs on this terminal's live stateFREE
$0
- 100 req / mo
- Delayed spot
- 1 website widget
EVALUATION
RATES
$29/mo
- Live spot + AM/PM fix
- Carat endpoint · 72 ccy
- 10k req · embed widget
SITE OWNERS · SMALL SHOPS
STOREFRONT
$59/mo
- Everything in Rates
- Unlimited TV gadgets (/g/token)
- Branded daily PDF rate sheet
- FTA quote builder
SOUK RETAILERS · CHAINS
DESK
$149/mo
- Everything in Storefront
- Sentiment + Brain API
- Regional premiums feed
- Telegram alerts · hedge assistant
BULLION DEALERS · DESKS
ENTERPRISE
custom
- White-label · SLA
- ERP connectors (WinGold/Marg)
- MCP server for AI agents
ERPs · INSTITUTIONS
Endpoints
P1 rates · P2 intelligence| Endpoint | Plan | Returns |
|---|---|---|
| GET /v1/spot | Rates | live XAU + change |
| GET /v1/fix | Rates | LBMA AM/PM + spread |
| GET /v1/carat | Rates | per-gram per karat per ccy |
| GET /v1/sentiment | Desk | ST/LT + attribution |
| GET /v1/brain | Desk | regime JSON |
| GET /v1/premiums | Desk | SGE/DXB/BOM/IST |
| POST /v1/webhooks | Desk | threshold alerts |
| MCP · gold-intelligence | Ent. | agent tool access |